1:10 – Al Bastakiya Sponsored By Emirates Skywards (Listed Race) (Tapeta) (3yo)
By far and away the worst race on the card as none of them have form that should be close to winning on Super Saturday. One of them has to win though and He’s No Saint looked the best of the ordinary bunch last time by some margin.
He got a great ride and it was a huge improvement on his form beforehand back in Ireland but David Marnane is like a few of his counterparts gaining a big reputation in Dubai. He deserves to be favourite for me over Emirates Flyer who is a big negative to get the trip or at least improve for it.
Full Combat has been begging for further but has a lot to prove after running so poorly last time in headgear. That’s taken off and it would be of no surprise to see him run better. However preference is for ASMAR, an extremely well bred Cape Cross colt who even though is still a maiden, has shown plenty of potential.
I wouldn’t advise a strong bet at all but he’s a tentative selection in a very weak race.
Advice – Asmar 2pts win @8/1 Paddy Power
1:45 – Meydan Sprint Sponsored By Arabian Adventures (Group 3) (Turf) (3yo+)
Shea Shea winning last year’s Meydan Sprint in brilliant fashion
I wanted to be on Sole Power earlier in the week and I think he has a great chance here, but in the end I will leave the race. Shea Shea won the Meydan Sprint in incredible fashion last year before taking the Al Quoz Sprint. He needed his first run back last year and that finishing speed could well just lack a gear tomorrow, making him vulnerable.
The race will bring him on without doubt but with Mike De Kock saying he is as fit as he could be, he should still be going close. I think the two are the best horses by a fair margin, are the most proven in conditions and are likely to fight out the finish.
It’s helped to be drawn middle to high so far in sprints but there is no obvious bias and the inclusion of Beat Baby and Hototo drawn low could help the South African sprinter. Catcall is definitely third best.
He lacked a bit of spark when seen two weeks ago in a handicap but needs a stronger pace to run at and he gets it here. Ahtoug and Alsaaeqah have both won handicaps this Carnival but are yet to prove themselves at Group 1 level and are probably going to come up short.
2:25 – Mahab Al Shimaal Sponsored By Emirates Skywards (Group 3) (Tapeta) (3yo+)
One of the toughest races to try and work out that I have seen for a very long time. Soft Falling Rain is a horse I am a massive fan of but he’s got the car park draw and this is clearly a prep for World Cup night. However many that are fancied also have wide draws.
They include last year’s Shaheen winner Reynaldothewizard, not seen since disappointing a touch in the Dubawi Stakes but the race didn’t work out for him. He beat Krypton Factor really well in the race last year and a reproduction of that would see him go very well. The Dubawi Stakes had a few others that now take part in this.
It was won by United Colour and despite also having a bad draw, he’s maybe worth another chance as last time he was badly hampered at a crucial stage. Again plenty from that race come here, the Godolphin pair Complicate and Bello ran well that day and though have to improve, they do have low draws.
Likewise does Rich Tapestry but this is a big ask first up. Jamesie has improved hugely this Carnival and is respected and so too does BALMONT MAST who is tough to win with but is supremely talented on his day. Ryan Moore takes over which is a plus for me and don’t forget he was second in the Shaheen and third in this last year.
He’s better drawn than a few of them and with this possibly being run at a very fast pace, he may come into it late on and is a decent e/w price.
Advice – Balmont Mast 1pt e/w @14/1 generally
3:00 – Burj Nahaar Sponsored By Emirates Holidays (Group 3) (Tapeta) (3yo+)
The very taking Variety Club should win the Burj Nahaar though value lies elsewhere in the race
Variety Club should win this as he’s a crack Group 1 performer in a race that really lacks opposition. There is the possibility of the bounce factor and maybe a more strongly run race but I think this horse could be a bit special and should take it well within his huge stride.
There’s no way I’d be backing at evens as it’s a big field and with him in it, there is huge e/w value. Haatheq chased him home last time over C&D and could well go close again, Shuruq is a different filly on the Tapeta and Capital Attraction found his form again but will have a tough fight for the lead.
Forjatt is better at Jebel Ali and Zahee is respected but he could only finish third behind EASTERN RULES last time out and the highly progressive Michael Halford runner is way too big at 16/1 to ignore. I was going to leave this race but I simply have to have something of that as if the favourite wasn’t in the race I would be on his side in a big way.
He’s been running over 7f but his most impressive win came on the turf last time which for me takes more getting and I think we could see even more stepped up to a mile back on Tapeta.
Advice – Eastern Rules 1pt e/w @16/1 Bet365
3:35 – Dubai City Of Gold Sponsored By Emirates SkyCargo (Group 2) (Turf) (3yo+)
Favourite Penglai Pavilion is highly respected on his French form and for connections so I fully understand why he’s favourite. Empoli and Meandre fought out a modest Group 1 in Europe last year and both have shown they’re in good heart, finishing second in their respective races.
Empoli is open to improvement though and if over earlier antics (withdrawn on what was meant to be his original start) he has to go well. Mujaarib is a major negative for me at the trip. He raced lazily last time but has plenty of pace and I just can’t see him taking to the step up in trip.
Mount Athos will love the ground but this is maybe a prep for the Gold Cup, a trip that suits him more. One that is way too big in this is HEAVY METAL, a very good horse back in South Africa, as shown when winning the Durban July. We’ve seen this Carnival that South African form needs to be respected yet here the market doesn’t.
He has comfortable excuses for both his runs this term, the first over a trip too short in a race that fell apart and latest on the Tapeta when stuck too far back. He’s never tried this trip but he is quite a grinder who could absolutely relish it and for a genuine Group 1 performer, 14/1 is way too big.
Excellent Result should be fine back down in trip but needs to find plenty. Sheikhzayedroad comes into it if the pace is particularly strong. While Jamr and Songcraft have place claims.
Advice – Heavy Metal 1.5pts e/w @14/1 generally
4:10 – Al Maktoum Challenge R3 Sponsored By Emirates Airline (Group 1) (Tapeta) (3yo+)
Prince Bishop (Right) and African Story should go close in the third and final round of the Al Maktoum Challenge
A really good Al Maktoum Challenge, one of the two closing Group 1’s on the card. African Story is short but deserves to be at the head of the market as he’s a former Godolphin Mile winner who is the classiest horse in the race and just about proved he stays this far last time when chasing home Prince Bishop, albeit this is half a furlong further.
The latter that day got a brilliant ride by Kieren Fallon and it would not surprise me for stall 1 if he tried and did very similar again. I think he will relish the extra half a furlong more too but it will be a touch disappointing if he can take this as before his last run he looked quite exposed. Side Glance has become a hugely admirable global campaigner but is entitled to come on for this.
Sanshaawes has been progressive this Carnival in handicap company though he needs to step up by some margin to challenge just a week later. Educate gets an e/w bet from me just because he is massive favourite of mine, as most of you know but it’s CAT O’MOUNTAIN who gets the vote and another chance.
He got a terrible ride last time in the race won by Elleval which he ran in off top weight. He found himself at least three wide all the way and though he made a good move turning for home, no matter how good you are, you cannot win a race covering 21 metres more than the winner.
That’s what he did that day and I’m sure connections want to prove how good he is here so hopefully there’s no messing about. He’s the value selection ahead of the favourite.
Advice – Cat O’Mountain 2pts win @11/1 Betvictor
4:45 – Jebel Hatta Sponsored By Emirates Airline (Group 1) (Turf) (3yo+)
Vercingetorix has gained a lofty reputation at home in South Africa and on his sole Meydan start to date. I think he’s a tough, gritty and very consistent horse who deserves respect, though 9/4 is not a price I want to be taking upped in grade.
Vancouverite was progressive last year especially at 10f, winning four on the bounce and culminating at Group 2 level though he was then held in the Prix Niel. He’s got a good chance in a race that may not be as strong as some of the others on the card.
Trade Storm found only Mshawish ahead of him last week over a mile but he didn’t get a great ride and this was clearly the race in the forefront of the minds of connections. He needs plenty to go for and it wouldn’t surprise me if a quick return may just have taken the edge off him.
I instead have gone for L’AMOUR DE MA VIE who is a lot more straight forward than the Simcock horse and is simply a highly progressive filly that is very hard to look past. She was no match for Certify on her Meydan debut and though that rival underperformed upped to this trip when she won, there was no fluke in her performance at all.
I think 15/2 is a fair price for her. Mushreq found the test last time too stiff and will appreciate this trip more, while Mike De Kock also runs Mars who has been disappointing thus far and also Anaerobio who has found his level and this is not his trip anymore.
Advice – L’Amour De Ma Vie 2pts win @15/2 BetVictor
