Chepstow
1:30 – Coral Spin Casino For iPad Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-145)
A race I didn’t particularly want to get involved in considering the favourite Moorlands Mist is pretty solid off a 10lb higher mark with Tom Cheeseman again taking 10lb off. I can’t have Pure Science over 3m on heavy. Lookout Mountain hacked up at Huntingdon but looked held last time by the favourite and instead I’m giving LAMPS a go.
He hasn’t been seen since Boxing Day last year but has good form to his name, particularly on heavy ground. He may well need the run but the fact he comes here first time up upped in trip for the first time to 3m and on bottomless ground strongly suggests to me he will be ready for this.
He’s won both his last two seasonal winter reappearances, the latter was particularly impressive, both also on soft/heavy ground. Then considering the stable had a double today including a very well backed one at Wolves any money (already arrived a bit) would be even more significant.
Advice – Lamps 1pt e/w @12/1 Ladbrokes
2:35 – Coral Welsh Grand National (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Goonyella should relish the Welsh National test and is taken to give connections a second win in the race
A really competitive race and the presence of Tidal Bay off a big weight means plenty run outside the handicap or off very low weights. The old boy could run well off a mark 3lb which saw him finish second to Bobs Worth in the Hennessy and with ground fine.
Last year’s runner-up Teaforthree has a very tough ask without a prep run and off a new mark while front-runner Highland Lodge and Merry King have a similar profile as he did last year with good efforts from the Hennessy. The latter in particular has more to give, should be fine on the ground and could improve for the trip.
I agree with the market general to be honest with horses such as Well Refreshed, who ran so well last time in the London National despite hitting numerous fences in his usual style and clearly not being fully fit. Jumping is still an issue for him and it’s less so for GOONYELLA who has so much going for him.
He’s a lot less exposed than most, the trainer won this in 2008 with Notre Pere and in this horse has a very strong stayer who relishes heavy ground. His Punchestown win in a good race is strong form and you’d be surprised if he didn’t have more to give.
Tour Des Champs has always promised to win a big handicap, as too Hawkes Point and there’s a whole host of other runners with a chance. But VINTAGE STAR is worth chancing with the trip also likely to suit.
I’ve really been impressed with him this season, notably at Carlisle when he beat two good horses on soft over 3m1f and he lost absolutely nothing in a brilliant finish behind Hey Big Spender at Newcastle latest and now with his jumping massively improved he still seems very well treated off his current mark.
Advice – Goonyella 2pts win @8/1 generally
Vintage Star 1pt e/w @14/1 generally
Newbury
1:45 – Betfred Goals Galore Challow Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
None of these can be discounted in what is a cracking race. Oscar Rock probably deserves to be favourite with the trip and ground likely to be fine but I still think we’ll see him at his best off a true gallop and that may not happen here.
He seemed to disappoint in a slowly run race behind Ballyalton last time but when that one went and took a good Novice race at Cheltenham, it now looks very strong form and I certainly have him favourite.
Timesremembered should overturn the form from Cheltenham with Creepy now on softer ground which he relished at Chepstow when winning the Persian War, plus with a 7lb swing. I still think it’s form that is a slight notch below some of the rest here and Creepy is certainly the slight outsider in my book, whereas the Lavelle horse looks a bit short at 7/2.
Captain Cutter and SHANTOU MAGIC have also faced each other before in a bumper at Ascot that has worked out unbelievable well. But since then the latter for me has improved beyond recognition and could hardly have been more impressive in winning two average hurdles. The soft ground is right up his street added with a slight step up in trip for this Irish point winner and with the stable still going well I think 11/2 is a very good price.
The Henderson horse has also won two pretty average races in good style though his jumping has led a lot to be desired so far and it will have to improve to win here. He won’t get away with it in a race like this.
Finally Kaki De La Pree is last to be mentioned. He has already won over a good deal further than this in handicap grade, beating a good horse in Pineau De Re last time. He goes well on soft ground and is worth his chance though more is needed and I don’t know there will be enough emphasis on stamina either.
Advice – Shantou Magic 3pts win @11/2 generally
