3:05 – Longines Master Collection (Handicap) (Turf) (3yo+ 100-110)
The Carnival is back with an extremely competitive 5f handicap and it’s well worth sticking a couple of darts in here. Rafeej is favourite but a poor price for me as his improvement has been on Tapeta over 6f and this will be totally different.
Progressive sprinter Rafeej is an interesting runner but seems plenty short considering his improvement has come on Tapeta over 6f.
Hamdan Al Maktoum also owns Alhebayeb who tries for 5f for the first time in a while and you get the suspicion he may come on a ton for this considering connections. Nero Emperor is respected for a trainer that does well with horses fresh and one with an upward profile like his but AHTOUG is the first to be taken here to get Charlie Appleby off the mark straight away in Dubai.
He went off favourite here for a non-Meydan handicap behind Take Ten last year and then did well over here in the summer, culminating in a smart win at the Shergar Cup, form which looks strong with Steps finishing second. Desert Law also represents Godolphin and is a risky one but would be no surprise to see him run well.
My Propeller should be up there all the way and if fit and ready is a big danger but RACY gets a tentative e/w bet here. 5f and fast ground has always been his ideal and after a season of knocking on the door in good sprint handicaps, it’s time for him to get what he deserves.
The last twice he’s faced fast ground at this trip he’s finished runner-up both times and if ready for the trip over (only ran in October) then he’s got a very good chance here.
Advice – Ahtoug 2pts win @7/1 generally
Racy 1pt e/w @12/1 BetVictor
3:40 – Longines Saint Imier (Handicap) (Tapeta) (3yo+ 95-105)
A weak looking race which looks there for the taking and though there is reasons to oppose favourite EL ESTRUENDOSO he could well be a cut above these. Mike De Kock always gets his to improve for the run but this one has been subject to rave reports since being gelded and his form from last year entitles him to respect anyway.
A mark of 101 seems fair and the step up in trip should suit especially on his pedigree. Again there’s no reason to suggest he won’t be at home on the Tapeta but this race looks weak to me and the 11/4 is worth taking. Godolphin have the two main market rivals and both could well come on for the run.
Transparent could take nicely to the surface while Clon Brulee is an intriguing buy but the surface is an unknown as of yet. Specific Gravity could need this more than his stablemate and certainly lacks the potential and not much else appeals to a great extent.
Advice – El Estruendoso 3pts win @11/4 Coral
5:25 – Al Maktoum Challenge Round 1 Presented By Longines (Group 2) (Tapeta) (3yo+)
Shuruq impressed as a 3yo last year and though didn’t run to form back over here this summer she is reportedly going well at home and the return to Tapeta should suit
A wide open feature of the opening card and plenty can be given chances. Mike De Kock and Godolphin are both well represented; the former by Daddy Long Legs who seems to be the first choice of the jockey and by reports is fit to run very well. Rerouted is the opposite meanwhile and his rating is probably a touch flattering.
Steeler returns for Charlie Appleby after 400 days off. He got stuck in the Zarooni saga and it would be great for this former Johnston inmate to bounce back but he is pretty short for one who hasn’t been seen for ages. The Suroor horse SHURUQ is definitely the one for me here.
I thought she was potentially a very smart filly over here last season when winning the UAE Oaks in particular though she flopped over in the UK later in the year. The return to Tapeta has to be a positive and she clearly thrives over here as she is reportedly going well at home. At 17/2 she represents a bit of value.
The old boy Barbecue Eddie won this last year but found himself behind Mufarrh a couple of weeks back and that rival is favoured to overturn his 2 length deficit from last year. He should be spot on for this. Capital Attraction could get his way out in front but hasn’t had a prep run for his first Carnival try this season while Brendan Brackan has unplaced on all his a/w starts to date and thus has this to prove.
Advice – Shuruq 2pts win @9/1 BetVictor
6:00 – Longines Conquest Classic (Handicap) (Turf) (3yo+ 100-110)
Another wide open race with plenty looking handicapped to their best and others clearly likely to come on for this. Godolphin have two very interesting runners, notably Australian import Complicate who could well win this easily as he brings a very progressive profile to the race.
Even though he’s second string on bookings I’m going to chance FREE WHEELING, also a former Australian horse. He ran well twice on the Tapeta last year, notably just behind Rerouted first time up. He struggled a touch last time on soft ground but had run really well in a good listed race before that.
His Australian form on turf over 7f is strong, notably a second to Fawkner and plenty suggests a mark of 105 is pretty decent. At his price I think he’s worth chancing. Anaerobio finished a good third in this last year and him and stablemates Royal Ridge and Disa Leader all could be better for this.
The British runners are led by The Gold Cheongsam who is certainly better treated than most, certainly better than Arnold Lane off 105. Iguazu Falls and Nawwaar off big weights have place claims and of the outsiders Dafeef has a squeak.
Advice – Free Wheeling 1pt e/w @14/1 generally
